What decision has the highest odds of success? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and of course poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions.
For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
Lots of books and websites give advice on profitable strategies - and tipsters and systems proliferate. But this is the only guide that helps you make your trades and bank your wins for the long term, avoiding the perennial dangers of overconfidence, irrationality and emotion. However successful your selections, you are never safe from crippling losses until you know how to bet with the clear head and calm approach of the masters.
The simple fact is that most people betting on sports lose over the long term. Performance errors currently hamper the majority of bettors: they lose their bets because they first lose their heads.
The only answer is to think differently. With chapters ranging across motivation, performance analysis, the betting process and going pro, this book is the definitive guide to achieving this: - Use dozens of exercises to sharpen your thinking and refine your betting processes.
Sports Betting to Win is your own personal course for establishing a firm psychological foundation for long-term betting success. The Ski Guide Manual presents wisdom earned through decades of experience guiding and. The result is a successful system of travel and risk management in the winter environment.
The collective work of thousands of mountain guides have proven how to have the most fun and find the best snow, all which reducing risk of avalanche, cold, crevasses, and optimize group dynamics.
Imagine if you had the ability to know precisely what your customers want, and built a business around it. What if you could minimise the risk of failure when starting something of your own?
What if you could act on your idea today and build it into a revenue-generating business? Written by a cohort of successful startup founders, mentors, business strategists and intrapreneurs from around the world, this book answers the question: what is the secret to building products that customers really love and willingly pay for? In this book, you'll learn: —Why you should or shouldn't act on your idea NOW —How to develop the mindset of a fearless entrepreneur with a strong sense of purpose —How to make better decisions when outcomes are uncertain, using the DM Canvas and the mental time travel technique —Why you should not spend your time and resources in search of investor funding, but instead delay investments as much as possible —How to design and build products with high chances of success in the real world instead of speculating and failing —How the "Innovator's Canvas" can help you build a flexible and robust business model —How to tell your story to get the attention of your customers —How to create valuable IP, not just patents to show in your pitch deck —BONUS: Be remarkable and stand out from your competition —BONUS: How you can build a culture of fearless innovation Each idea is unique, but there is a universal process to innovate.
Buy this book to test your idea, unleash the entrepreneurial spirit within you and make your idea happen! Specifically, this book will help people understand and deal with the complexity of the system, the uncertainty of the future, the hidden agendas and misguided views of many advisors, and the built-in irrationality we have as humans that makes it so hard to survive—let alone thrive financially.
More than that, by using the six foundational principles of Holistic Financial Wellness, the attentive reader will now be prepared psychologically to weather the aftermath of this crisis, and be ready to face the next one. This book empowers readers to plan for the predictable, and to be prepared for the unpredictable—without losing sight of the trail. The book is funny, frank, and realistic about how to navigate financially in an uncertain world.
Named a "must read" by Susan Cain, "endlessly fascinating" by Daniel Pink, and "bursting with practical insights" by Adam Grant. In this accessible and practical book, Ozan Varol reveals nine simple strategies from rocket science that you can use to make your own giant leaps in work and life -- whether it's landing your dream job, accelerating your business, learning a new skill, or creating the next breakthrough product.
Today, thinking like a rocket scientist is a necessity. Two things determine how your life turns out: the quality of your decisions, and luck. Recognize the difference between the two. A bad result does not mean a bad decision. Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable.
Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read. Want to Read saving…. Want to Read Currently Reading Read. Other editions. Enlarge cover. Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Everything is there in the open and nothing randomly appears or disappears. What you have are probabilities and possibilities. But if you conjure up the regret of a similar past decision, it can help guide you toward making a more rational choice in the present moment.
Self-critique is an important skill, but other people can help you see your blind spots. They bring their own unique life experiences to the table and give you the chance to view ideas from angles you hadn't considered before. Not every person has the bandwidth to provide you with serious feedback on your life choices, or wants to have their decisions or beliefs picked apart in return. Duke looks to sociologist Robert K.
Merton's guidelines for how he believed the scientific community should function, which he described using the acronym CUDOS:. Data is commonly owned, belonging to everyone.
In a decision group, sharing data means being honest about the factors that went into your decision and providing as much detail as possible, omitting nothing, especially the things you're tempted to leave out. All evidence must be treated in the same way, with a standard set of criteria, no matter what the source is. Don't let conflicts of interest or other biases influence the work. All ideas are subject to scrutiny, criticism, and dissent. Organized skepticism is not argumentative or confrontational—not if everyone is willing to engage with their own uncertainty.
As a group, you should reward civil dissent and debate with approval, encouraging healthy discussion and making it part of the group's norms. Unlock the full book summary of Thinking in Bets by signing up for Shortform. The decisions you make are ultimately driven by beliefs. You believe that job will be more fulfilling than this one. You believe you'll like living in a big city better than your small town.
You believe cardio is good for your heart and you believe that you'll live happily ever after with your partner. Some of these beliefs are based on our direct experiences. But you might be surprised by how often false beliefs creep into our heads and stick there. Making a habit of interrogating your beliefs is essential to making good decisions. False information seems to catch on and spread like wildfire, so much so that you could spend your whole life trying to combat the most commonly held misconceptions and likely never run out of material.
Why do misconceptions spread so quickly and linger even when the information needed to disprove them is readily available by doing a simple Google search? You paid attention to conditions on the road, predicted that the commute would take you longer, and took action to avoid being late.
In general, leaving early to make your appointments is probably a practice that will serve you well, and not something you should abandon because of one bad outcome. You can make sure that you considered alternatives, took steps to lower your risk, and thought through all the possible outcomes. Being a good decision-maker means staying rational in the face of losses, because some losses are inevitable.
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